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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.